Vancouver Market Forecast — More Drama or Calmer Waters Ahead?

As we enter 2026, it seems like external factors may make it hard to predict how things will play out in the Vancouver real estate market for the second year in a row.

Across the board, the number of transactions in 2025 was the lowest for two decades, but prices overall only came down by approx 5%. As we enter 2026, we are doing so with more active listing inventory than is typical for this time of year. All of this presents as very much a Buyers’ market. However, once the market is broken down (e.g. with new construction and the luxury market excluded), there are sectors which are much more balanced with less inventory and stronger buyer activity.

So what will happen next?

If we look at traditional local metrics, there is no reason not to think that we should be in for a fairly stable, functional market. Interest rates have come down and appear likely to hold where they are at worst. Prices have come down a little too, as above. And outside the luxury market, there is very little new construction inventory coming online in the City. There is also a backlog of buyers needing to make moves for all the usual reasons, who did not do so in 2025 due to wider economic uncertainty created primarily by the US tariffs / trade war. So if, and that’s a big if, we can get through at least the first half of the year without another major curveball from south of the border, then things should play out as above. However, based on week one of the news cycle alone, that may be optimistic. We will see!

All the best,

Duncan